World Set to Breach 1.5°C Climate Target, UN Warns

The world is set to surpass the key climate change threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming within the next decade, according to a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

In its annual Emissions Gap Report released on Tuesday, UNEP warned that slow global action to curb greenhouse gas emissions has made it clear that the world will exceed the 1.5°C target set under the 2015 Paris Agreement, at least temporarily.

“This will be difficult to reverse, requiring faster and larger additional reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to minimize overshoot,” the report said.

UNEP said that while deep emissions cuts today could delay when the overshoot happens, “we can no longer totally avoid it.”

Under the Paris Agreement, countries pledged to limit global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to cap it at 1.5 degrees. But the latest national pledges to reduce emissions would still result in warming of between 2.3°C and 2.5°C, UNEP said.

That figure is only slightly lower by about 0.3 degrees than last year’s projection, suggesting that new pledges from major emitters, including China, have done little to close the gap. China, the world’s largest emitter, announced in September that it would cut emissions by 7 to 10 percent from their peak by 2035, though analysts say the country often exceeds its stated goals.

The findings increase pressure on delegates attending the upcoming COP30 climate summit, where nations are expected to discuss how to accelerate emissions reductions and mobilize finance for climate action.

Scientists have long warned that each fraction of a degree of global warming worsens the risk of extreme weather. For instance, warming of 2°C would more than double the number of people exposed to deadly heatwaves compared with 1.5°C. Meanwhile, a 1.5°C temperature rise could wipe out 70 percent of coral reefs, while 2°C would destroy up to 99 percent.

Despite the grim outlook, UNEP noted some progress. When the Paris Agreement was signed a decade ago, the world was on track for nearly 4°C of warming. Current policies, however, still put the planet on course for around 2.8°C of heating by the end of the century.

Global greenhouse gas emissions rose by 2.3 percent in 2024 as nations continued to rely heavily on coal, oil, and gas to drive economic growth.

The report’s message is clear: without stronger and faster action, the goal of keeping global warming within safe limits will remain out of reach.