World Still Off Target as New Climate Pledges Barely Shift Warming Outlook

Despite new national commitments under the Paris Agreement, the world remains on course for dangerous levels of global warming, according to the Emissions Gap Report 2025 released by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).

The report, titled Off Target, shows that even if all new pledges are fully implemented, global temperatures are projected to rise between 2.3°C and 2.5°C this century, only a slight improvement from last year’s estimate of 2.6°C to 2.8°C. Current policies alone would still result in 2.8°C of warming.

UNEP notes that part of this improvement is due to technical updates, not stronger action, while the upcoming withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement could offset the gains. The world remains far from meeting the Paris goal of limiting temperature rise to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to stay below 1.5°C.

“A temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable, starting in the early 2030s,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres. “But this is no reason to surrender. The 1.5-degree goal remains our North Star, and it’s still within reach if we increase our ambition.”

UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen warned that countries are falling behind their promises.

“Nations have had three attempts to deliver under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have landed off target,” she said. “While national climate plans have delivered some progress, it is nowhere near fast enough.”

By September 2025, only 60 countries representing 63 per cent of global emissions had submitted or announced new targets for 2035. Meanwhile, global greenhouse gas emissions rose by 2.3 per cent in 2024 to 57.7 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent. To align with Paris goals, emissions must drop 25 per cent by 2030 for a 2°C pathway and 40 per cent for 1.5°C.

The report warns that global temperatures will soon exceed the 1.5°C limit, at least temporarily, and that reversing this overshoot will be extremely difficult. Each 0.1°C of excess warming would require removing about five years’ worth of current global CO₂ emissions. However, strong action from 2025 could limit the overshoot to 0.3°C and restore temperatures to 1.5°C by the end of the century.

UNEP says the tools to cut emissions already exist. Falling costs of renewable energy and rapid advances in solar and wind power make major reductions technically feasible. But achieving them requires political will, more support for developing countries, and reforms in global finance.

The report highlights the G20 nations, responsible for 77 per cent of global emissions, as central to progress. Yet their emissions rose by 0.7 per cent in 2024, and most are not on track to meet even current pledges.

“It is still possible, just,” Andersen said. “Countries must go all in and invest in ambitious climate action that delivers growth, jobs, energy security, and resilience.”